Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start Last year's EPAC season was incredible, and I doubt 2016 will be anything close due to the dissipation of El Niño. However, I'm still excited to see another EPAC season, and I'm hoping for some interesting storms, as even in 2010 there were some surprises (Celia and Omeka). Plus this year may be more active then expected if it's true that the EPAC is becoming more active again as it does every 20 years or so. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:32, December 29, 2015 (UTC) I think the 2016 Pacific hurricane season will likely be slightly below normal due to the possibility of a La Nina event, which usually inhibits Pacific tropical cyclone development due to cooler waters and more wind shear. If we are in a warm PDO/cold AMO as some are saying, 2016 will likely be close to normal in the Pacific. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 00:51, December 30, 2015 (UTC) Pre-Season - May Might as well have this section here, just in case. 01C.PALI 90C.INVEST Good call for the section. New invest west of the International Date Line. Not sure if anything's going to happen with it, though. Jake52 (talk) 01:39, January 6, 2016 (UTC) : I wonder if this has any relation with TD 9C. Either way, it's similar in that it's very near the equator. This system seems to have a better chance at becoming Pali, as it has more organization, and more model support. But two systems of notability within one week during the off season is incredible, even with El Nino. I'm hoping for an off-season Pali this time, unlike the dissipation of 9C. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:29, January 6, 2016 (UTC) ::: It's now on the CPHC outlook, with a 50% chance of development. It's looking better organized today, and I would not be surprised to see Pali soon. The CPAC really just refuses to quit! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:42, January 6, 2016 (UTC) ::::: This is not Ex-9-C, it's a different area of disturbed weather that formed in the area 9-C did. For the strongest super El Nino on record, I'm not surprised we got an off-season depression at the end of last year, and if this new system becomes Pali, it'll beat Ekeka's record of 1992 for being the earlest CPac storm on record. Also, it's funny how the CPac has had a storm exist in every month of the year, but no storm has formed in the East Pacific proper (up to 140 west) before the month of May. Ryan1000 20:11, January 6, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression One-C Ekeka. your record has been broken. --HurricaneOdile | happy holidays! and year 14:11, January 7, 2016 (UTC) : Yay! This system continues to look more orgainized then it acually is though, looks like it should be a TS by now. But I sure didn't expect the 2016 Pacific hurricane season to start this early! Also note it's size compared to Ula, it's about 10 times bigger in terms of diameter! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:26, January 7, 2016 (UTC) ::: A week after we saw the record latest end, we now have the record earliest start. Amazing. And this looks a lot better than 9-C did, this one has a good shot at becoming Pali. And actually, according to Eric Blake, this one beat Winoa of 1989 for being the earliest start to an EPac season ever, not Ekeka (though Winoa wasn't operationally classified by the CPHC until the 16th). Ryan1000 19:02, January 7, 2016 (UTC) ::::: I think it's already a tropical storm based on satellite estimates now. I agree that it looks much better than 9C, and it's a lot larger and more symmetrical, and is really quite beautiful, especially compared to 9C. The first advisory also displays a very small chance of hurricane-force winds. I'm amazed to see such an early start to the EPAC. I mean, how often does the first EPAC storm form before the first WPAC storm? ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:39, January 7, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Pali Yep. 45 kts/1000 mbar. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:46, January 7, 2016 (UTC) : And so the earliest named storm on record in the EPAC is official. And it's not a total weakling either. It also looks to be pretty long lasting, especially for the off-season. I'm amazed that the CPAC activity is carrying on past the new year, but it is a super El Nino, so anything's possible. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:27, January 7, 2016 (UTC) : :: Are you kidding me? There's already a storm out there? And something to watch in the Atlantic too! Unbelievable Leeboy1002016 22:47, January 7, 2016 (UTC) :::::There was an eye effect earlier today.--Isaac829 02:21, January 8, 2016 (UTC) :::::This actually doesn't look half-bad, Pali may even become a hurricane as it slowly heads northwest. That would also break Ekeka's record for earliest EPac hurricane ever. A major hurricane might be taking it too far though. Ryan1000 04:48, January 8, 2016 (UTC) Um... this thing is now a strong TS according to ATCF... CP, 01, 2016010812, , BEST, 0, 70N, 1719W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0, 1010, 275, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PALI, D, If we end up getting a hurricane in early January, I will scream. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:29, January 8, 2016 (UTC) : Despite the recent increase in strength, Pali seems to be getting less organized. It looked better as a depression then it does now... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:29, January 8, 2016 (UTC) : LOL, this is such an oddball. Also, Dylan, about January hurricanes, it's happened before. Ekeka comes to mind. Alice in 1954 was a year-crosser hurricane that reached hurricane strength in January 1955. Although, this would be the earliest hurricane on record in the Pacific. Leeboy1002016 23:22, January 8, 2016 (UTC) ::: The pressure rose 2 milibars to 996 in the latest advisory, looks like Pali is starting to slip. It better get its act back together if it wants to become a hurricane, though it still has a while to beat Ekeka's record. 20-30 knot shear is on the rise over this storm right now, which explains the weakening trend. Hopefully Pali can survive it, it's not affecting any populated land areas (outside of, maybe a few small islands) and it would be nice to see the earliest EPac hurricane on record. Ryan1000 03:59, January 9, 2016 (UTC)